class: center, middle, inverse, title-slide .title[ # 5. Protecting Area in a World of Change ] .author[ ### Jasper Slingsby, BIO3014S ] .date[ ### 2025-08-27 ] --- class: center, middle ### Is putting a fence around it enough? --- ## The Assumptions of Protecting Area... .pull-left[ - Setting land aside should: - Safeguard species and ecosystems - Provide ecosystem services - But this assumes: - Habitats and species ranges are stable - Static boundaries suffice - Pressures can be kept out - Necessary processes are intact and do not rely on unprotected areas - (e.g. fire, hydrology, migration) - Protected areas are effectively managed... ] .pull-right[ <img src="data:image/png;base64,#images/Yellowstone1904.jpg" width="100%" /> .footnote[Yellowstone National Park by [Henry Wellge (1850-1917)](https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=43155865)] ] --- class: center, middle ## Protected area effectiveness? <img src="data:image/png;base64,#images/protected_areas_map.png" width="55%" /> Protected Areas (PAs) cover ~17% of land and ~8% of oceans ***BUT*** climate change and other threats are reshaping ecosystems and undermining their effectiveness at protecting biodiversity... .footnote[Global protected areas from [Bingham et al. 2019](http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41559-019-0869-3)] --- ## Determinants of Protected Area Effectiveness .pull-left[ The effectiveness of a protected area in achieving the desired conservation outcomes is influenced by two main factors: - **Protected Area Management Effectiveness (PAME)**: How well the PA is managed, including planning, enforcement, resource allocation, and community engagement. - **Change Drivers**: External pressures such as climate change, invasive species, pollution, altered ecosystem processes and land-use change that can impact the PA's ecosystems and biodiversity and the extent to which we can mitigate or adapt to them. Unfortunately, both are hugely challenging! ] .pull-right[ <img src="data:image/png;base64,#5_ProtectingArea_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-3-1.png" width="100%" /> ] --- ## Protected Area Management Effectiveness (PAME) .pull-left[ There are a number of different PAME methodologies, but most are based on a similar framework and share common elements, e.g.: - Planning: Clear objectives, zoning, and management plans. - Resources: Adequate funding, staffing, and infrastructure. - Enforcement/implementation: Effective patrolling, law enforcement and other management activities. - Community Engagement: Involving local communities and stakeholders. - Monitoring and Evaluation: Regular assessment of management effectiveness and ecological outcomes. ] .pull-right[ <img src="data:image/png;base64,#images/hockings2006.png" width="80%" /> .footnote[Framework for assessing management effectiveness of protected areas ([Hockings et al. 2006](https://portals.iucn.org/library/efiles/documents/PAG-014.pdf)).] ] --- ## Protected Area Management Effectiveness (PAME) > "_According to the global database on PAME, in 2020 only 18.29% of the area covered by protected areas has been evaluated._" - [Gurney et al. 2023](https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oneear.2023.01.012) -- .pull-left[ South Africa employs an adapted version of the the Management Effectiveness Tracking Tool (METT), called METT-SA [Cowan et al. 2010](https://www.dffe.gov.za/sites/default/files/reports/research/biodiversity/management_effectiveness_saprotected_areas.pdf) assessed 230 (±78%) of SA's PAs" >"_Total scores ranged from 10% to 86%, with a total mean of 49%_ > - _108 (47%) scores were below the mean,_ > - _121 (53%) above the mean and_ > - _only 31 (14%) above the 67% level for sound management._" ] .pull-right[ <img src="data:image/png;base64,#images/cowan2010_F2.png" width="100%" /> .footnote[[Cowan et al. 2010](https://www.dffe.gov.za/sites/default/files/reports/research/biodiversity/management_effectiveness_saprotected_areas.pdf)] ] --- ## Protected Area Management Effectiveness (PAME) .pull-left[ Very few indicators scored above 50% on average, let alone the 67% level for sound management... <br> South Africa is among the better countries for assessing PAME globally, but there is still much room for improvement! .footnote[[Cowan et al. 2010](https://www.dffe.gov.za/sites/default/files/reports/research/biodiversity/management_effectiveness_saprotected_areas.pdf)] ] .pull-right[ <img src="data:image/png;base64,#images/cowan2010_F4.png" width="90%" /> ] --- .pull-left[ <img src="data:image/png;base64,#images/franklin2016_crop.jpg" width="90%" /> ] .pull-right[ ## Change Drivers? Protected areas are subject to all the usual suspects... Some of these they are aimed at combating (e.g. habitat loss), while others may not have been anticipated when the PA was established (e.g. climate change, invasive species). Some can be managed, given sufficient resources (e.g. invasive species), while others are largely out of the control of PA managers (e.g. climate change). .footnote[[Franklin et al. 2016](https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1519911113)] ] --- .pull-left[ <img src="data:image/png;base64,#images/franklin2016_crop.jpg" width="90%" /> ] .pull-right[ ## Change Drivers? Protected areas are subject to all the usual suspects... Some of these they are aimed at combating (e.g. habitat loss), while others may not have been anticipated when the PA was established (e.g. climate change, invasive species). Some can be managed, given sufficient resources (e.g. invasive species), while others are largely out of the control of PA managers (e.g. climate change). Unfortunately,... - many are intensifying, and most interact... - we don't fully understand how they'll affect biodiversity, or how best to manage their impacts... .footnote[[Franklin et al. 2016](https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1519911113)] ] --- ## Climate change anomalies in South Africa's PAs .pull-left[ <img src="data:image/png;base64,#images/vanwilgen2015_F2.jpg" width="100%" /> ] .pull-right[ <img src="data:image/png;base64,#images/vanwilgen2015_F1.jpg" width="100%" /> ] .footnote[All National Parks ([van Wilgen et al. 2015](http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/joc.4377))] --- ## Climate change impacts in South Africa's PAs .pull-left[ <img src="data:image/png;base64,#images/slingsby2017_chd.png" width="100%" /> ] .pull-right[ <img src="data:image/png;base64,#images/slingsby_capepoint.png" width="100%" /> More extreme weather in the first summer after fires cause local species loss. ] .footnote[Cape of Good Hope ([Slingsby et al. 2017](https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1619014114))] --- ## But Climate Change is more than change in time... .pull-left[ We're used to seeing climate records and climate change projections as time-series, but climate also varies in space and climate change plays out over space... ] .pull-right[ <div class="figure" style="text-align: centre"> <img src="data:image/png;base64,#images/IPCC-SRL-image-4.png" alt="IPCC AR6 illustrative mitigation pathways (IMPs)." width="100%" /> <p class="caption">IPCC AR6 illustrative mitigation pathways (IMPs).</p> </div> ] --- .pull-left[ ## Climate Change Velocity ] .pull-right[ <img src="data:image/png;base64,#images/loarie1.webp" width="100%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" /> ] --- ## Multiple Dimensions of Climate Change... Garcia paper --- ## Key Questions: 1. How do global change drivers like climate change affect PAs? 2. How can we manage these impacts? 3. Can PAs contribute to climate solutions? 4. How should we rethink conservation under global change? --- ## Learning Objectives By the end of this lecture, students should be able to: - Explain how climate change threatens biodiversity inside PAs. - Assess the role of PAs in both climate change adaptation and mitigation. - Critically evaluate strategies for climate-smart conservation. --- ## Climate Change Impacts on PAs **Direct impacts:** - Species loss, or range shifts towards cooler areas. - Phenological mismatches (e.g. flowers and pollinators). - Habitat loss (corals, alpine, Arctic). **Indirect impacts:** - Invasive species. - Disturbance regimes (fire, storms, pests). - Hydrological change. --- ## Direct impacts - Rachel Garcia paper --- ## Direct impacts - Higgins 1999 invasives paper --- ## Case Study: Kruger National Park - Altered rainfall and fire regimes. - Shifts in vegetation and herbivore dynamics. - Management challenge: balancing biodiversity, tourism, and resilience. --- class: center ## Detecting climate impacts? <img src="data:image/png;base64,#images/medecos1.png" width="100%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" /> .left[.footnote[[Slingsby et al. 2021](http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.isprsjprs.2020.05.017) and _in prep_. - _Requires a model for how the local ecosystem should behave!_]] --- class: center ## Detecting climate impacts? <img src="data:image/png;base64,#images/medecos2.png" width="100%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" /> .left[.footnote[[Slingsby et al. 2021](http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.isprsjprs.2020.05.017) and _in prep_. - _Requires a model for how the local ecosystem should behave!_]] --- class: center ## Detecting climate impacts? <img src="data:image/png;base64,#images/medecos3.png" width="100%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" /> .left[.footnote[[Slingsby et al. 2021](http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.isprsjprs.2020.05.017) and _in prep_. - _Requires a model for how the local ecosystem should behave!_]] --- .left-column[ ## Assessing Park-level Climate Vulnerability? ] .right-column[ <div class="figure" style="text-align: center"> <img src="data:image/png;base64,#images/coldrey2022.jpg" alt="There's more to the picture than just the impacts..." width="100%" /> <p class="caption">There's more to the picture than just the impacts...</p> </div> ] .footnote[[Coldrey et al 2022](https://doi.org/10.1111/cobi.13941)] --- ## Protecting Areas under Climate Change **Adaptation options** - Climate refugia. - Corridors and connectivity. - Dynamic, adaptive management. --- ## Protected Areas and Climate Mitigation? **Mitigation roles:** - Carbon storage (forests, peatlands, mangroves). - Avoided deforestation. - REDD+ and policy integration. --- ## Protected Areas and Climate Mitigation? <div class="figure" style="text-align: center"> <img src="data:image/png;base64,#images/duncanson5.webp" alt="Differences in Aboveground Biomass Density (AGBD), forest height, canopy cover, and Plant Area Index (PAI) between PAs and matched unprotected areas." width="70%" /> <p class="caption">Differences in Aboveground Biomass Density (AGBD), forest height, canopy cover, and Plant Area Index (PAI) between PAs and matched unprotected areas.</p> </div> .footnote[[Duncanson et al. 2023](https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-38073-9)] --- ## Climate Policy Context - **Kunming–Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework** (30x30). - **Paris Agreement** synergies. - Nature-based solutions at global scale. --- ## Traditional vs. Climate-Smart PAs .pull-left[ ### Traditional - Isolated reserves - Static boundaries - Species assumed stable - Vulnerable to climate change ] ️ .pull-right[ ### Climate-Smart - Networks & connectivity - Refugia & buffer zones - Adaptive management - Integrated with people & landscapes - Mitigation via carbon storage ] --- ## Wrap-up - Climate change undermines the static PA model. - Climate-smart approaches require connectivity, adaptation, and integration. - Conservation may need to shift focus from protecting *places* to protecting *processes*. --- ## Discussion > Should conservation shift from protecting **places** to protecting **processes** under climate change? --- ## Further Reading - Hannah et al. (2020) *Protected Areas and Climate Change*. - Watson et al. (2014) *The performance and potential of protected areas*. - CBD (2022) *Kunming–Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework*. --- class: middle ## Take-home >** > - ** >** --- class: center, middle # Thanks! Slides created via the R packages: [**xaringan**](https://github.com/yihui/xaringan)<br> [gadenbuie/xaringanthemer](https://github.com/gadenbuie/xaringanthemer) The chakra comes from [remark.js](https://remarkjs.com), [**knitr**](http://yihui.name/knitr), and [R Markdown](https://rmarkdown.rstudio.com).